With 5:35 remaining in the second quarter between Cheshire Phoenix and Newcastle Eagles in the SLB Trophy, Cheshire guard Cameron Holden stepped over half court and delivered a precise bounce pass to Skyler White, the league leader in 3-point attempts per game, who found himself in space on the wing. Newcastle’s Mike Okauru tried to close out, but it was too late. White had already released the ball. It sailed through the net without touching the rim—White’s first shot of the game.
To the casual observer, the Eagles seemed unbeatable, heading into Sunday’s game with a perfect 4-0 record in the SLB Trophy. However, beneath the surface, the numbers told a different story.
If you look at the opponent 3-point percentage (3P%) in the SLB Trophy North, it becomes clear that Newcastle had benefited from unusually cold shooting by their opponents. Across the group, teams facing Newcastle had shot just 23.3% from beyond the arc, the lowest in the league:
| Team | Record | Opponent 3P% |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Eagles | 4-1 | 23.3% |
| Cheshire Phoenix | 3-1 | 34.1% |
| Caledonia Gladiators | 2-2 | 35.5% |
| B. Braun Sheffield Sharks | 2-3 | 36.1% |
| Manchester Basketball | 0-4 | 30.2% |
Newcastle’s opponents had been shooting a dismal 23.3% from three, which undoubtedly contributed to the Eagles’ unbeaten start. In basketball, 3-point shooting can be volatile from game to game, but over the course of a season, teams tend to regress toward their average. This suggests that Newcastle’s early success might have been more about their opponents’ cold streaks than any particular defensive brilliance.
In each of Newcastle’s first four games, their opponents had shot well below their season averages from beyond the arc:
| Opponent | Date | Opponent 3P% | Opponent 3P% Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Braun Sheffield Sharks | 27-09-2024 | 20.0% | 37.3% | -17.3 |
| Manchester Basketball | 29-09-2024 | 19.2% | 30.8% | -11.6 |
| Caledonia Gladiators | 04-10-2024 | 16.0% | 28.4% | -12.4 |
| Caledonia Gladiators | 11-10-2024 | 23.3% | 28.4% | -5.1 |
However, Cheshire Phoenix presented a very different challenge. As the league leaders in 3-point attempts per game, with an average of 26.5 attempts from deep, they were perfectly positioned to expose Newcastle’s hidden vulnerability from beyond the arc. Cheshire’s offensive system thrives on generating space and hitting perimeter shots, and on this occasion, they made Newcastle pay.
On Sunday, Cheshire shot an impressive 42.1% from three, far exceeding their season average of 30.8%. Skyler White’s first 3-pointer was the spark, igniting a series of threes that shifted the game’s momentum. Newcastle, who had previously relied on their opponents’ poor shooting, found themselves unable to contain Cheshire’s outside attack.
| Opponent | Date | Opponent 3P% | Opponent 3P% Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Phoenix | 13-10-2024 | 42.1% | 30.8% | +11.3 |
Cheshire Phoenix didn’t just expose Newcastle’s perimeter weakness; they provided a potential blueprint for the rest of the league. Their ability to create and convert 3-point opportunities was something that no other team had fully capitalised on in Newcastle’s earlier games. Skyler White’s timely shooting broke through the Eagles’ defence, showing that Newcastle’s early success might have relied on unsustainable opponent misfires.
Now, Newcastle faces a critical question: can they adjust? Cheshire’s high-volume 3-point attack might just be the first of many challenges for the Eagles. If Newcastle doesn’t find a way to shore up their perimeter defence, this first loss could mark the beginning of a troubling trend.
