About Me
I’m Grant, a.k.a jumpshot_theory, and I’ve been a basketball fan for a long time, since Channel 4 started showing NBA content in the 1990s. After some time away from the sport, I started watching the BBL (as-was) three or four years ago when my kids got some cheap tickets for the Sheffield Sharks from school. Not content with just watching, I started getting interested in analytics and data-visualisation for British basketball, and a friend convinced me to start a Twitter/X account to share some of my findings. I’m also working on a free online book about coding and basketball stats.
Making Predictions
This SLB season, I’ve written a simple algorithm that attempts to predict the outcome of games. There are a few people who already do this (and loads when it comes to the NBA), many of which construct complex models incorporating many advanced statistics and running probabilistic models that predict the outcome of the same game tens of thousands of times. However, I was interested in addressing a different question – can you use NET rating to predict the outcome of games? You can find equations and formal definitions for NET online.
A simplified explanation of NET is that it shows a team’s balance of offence and defence efficiency, if a game had 100 possessions for each team. A positive average NET corresponds to a “good” team, while negative is the sign of a “bad” team. My predictions are then a comparison of NET ratings, adjusted for a team’s strength of schedule, and accounting for home court advantage (which I estimate to be about 4 points per 100 possessions).
I’ve predicted the results of the remaining games to see what the final league table might look like using the SLB Championship results up to 12th March (just after the Cup final).
Predictions for the end of the Regular Season
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| London Lions | 27 | 5 | 84% |
| B. Braun Sheffield Sharks | 25 | 7 | 78% |
| Leicester Riders | 25 | 7 | 78% |
| Newcastle Eagles | 15 | 17 | 47% |
| Cheshire Phoenix | 14 | 18 | 44% |
| Manchester Basketball | 13 | 19 | 41% |
| Bristol Flyers | 12 | 20 | 38% |
| Surrey 89ers | 10 | 22 | 31% |
| Caledonia Gladiators | 3 | 29 | 9% |
A first glance at the predicted table tells us that the London Lions are tipped to win the Championship, while the Caledonia Gladiators are likely to be the team that misses out on the playoffs. We can dig a little deeper to identify some interesting match-ups and where the predictions may become unstuck.
The Battle at the Top: London, Leicester and Sheffield
It’s clear that the predictions have the Lions, Riders and Sharks out in front, and the games between these clubs are going to be key battles, not only for taking the Championship, but also for the vital playoff seeding. It’s particularly tasty that the Lions play away at the Cup-winning Sharks on the final day of the regular season. It’s not totally out of the question that this game could be the title decider!
The predicted table has the Leicester Riders coming in tied with the Sharks for second, but again a key match up comes near the end of the season when they play London at the Copper Box on 23 April. There’s also a match up with the Sharks this weekend (in Sheffield, 16 March) – it’s at the end of a 3 game week for the Sharks, so an intriguing duel is on the cards.
Who Will Grab 4th Place?
The competition for fourth place, and home advantage in the first round of playoffs, is looking tight between the Eagles and Phoenix. Both teams have struggled with injuries and some inconsistency, but I get the feeling either team could beat anyone on their day. The predictions have Newcastle edging this one and securing 4th, but there’s only one game in it. The League couldn’t have scripted this any better as the two teams match up in Ellesmere Port on the final day – get your popcorn ready!
A possible spoiler in this “battle of the birds” could be a late surge in form by Manchester Basketball. The new coach, Herman Mandole, has instilled an attractive brand of basketball and that might lead to them picking up a few more wins than predicted. There are a couple of match-ups that will give us a good indication of their chance of sneaking 4th place – the first is on Sunday 16 March when they take on Cheshire Phoenix, then on 11 April Manchester travel to the Vertu Motors Arena to play the Newcastle Eagles. I’ve got both of those highlighted on the calendar.
Will Caledonia Shake Up the Playoff Race?
As I wrap this up, my thoughts turn to the Gladiators and the outcome that the predictions don’t have them winning another game before the Championship finishes. This doesn’t match with the recent “eye test” though – coach Bunyan has them playing some good team basketball and the new additions to the squad have changed the team’s prospects for me. While making the playoffs might be a step too far, I could certainly see them picking up a win or two, potentially causing chaos in the final standings. Towards the end of the season they play the Riders and the Sharks (twice), could they spoil someone’s party?
Of course, predictions can age like milk in the sun. By the time you read this, it could all be complete junk – but that’s one of the reasons why we love sport!
