Tomiwa Sulaiman’s individual offensive numbers are poor. He uses few possessions and has not scored efficiently when he does. Leicester’s impact data suggests he has still been helping them.
That is what makes him worth examining. Not because he has had a good offensive season. He has not. But because the gap between his box-score offence and his overall impact is so large.
This post uses Prophe(s)y Scout RAPM data kindly shared with Court Vision. Rooted in plus-minus, RAPM estimates a player’s impact per 100 possessions by adjusting for the players on the floor with him and against him to give a cleaner estimate of individual contribution.
A Small Offensive Positive
The table below shows the ORAPM of Leicester players this season, the offensive part of RAPM.
| Player | ORAPM |
|---|---|
| Don Carey Jr | +3.2 |
| Nate Martin | +2.7 |
| Marc Loving | +2.0 |
| Flynn Boardman-Raffet | +1.3 |
| Tomiwa Sulaiman | +0.3 |
| Aaron Menzies | -0.2 |
| Keddy Johnson | -0.8 |
| RaeQuan Battle | -1.0 |
| Emmanuel Akot | -1.2 |
| Spencer Johnson | -1.6 |
| Victor Ndoukou | -2.1 |
| Travis Evee | -4.2 |
* Only players with more than 100 minutes played are included
Sulaiman keeps offence simple. He stands where Leicester need him, whether on the perimeter, in the corner or in the dunker spot, and stays ready for the next action. He can set a screen, take the open shot or attack a closeout, but he rarely tries to do more than the possession asks of him. If he is not free, he moves the ball on and keeps the offence flowing.
That does not make him a good offensive player. His 45.9 percent effective field goal percentage is poor, and his 17.1 percent usage rate is modest. Leicester do not give him many possessions, and he has not done much with the ones he gets. But his slight positive ORAPM suggests he has still found a way to help the offence a little within those limits.
Where His Game Comes Alive
The table below shows the DRAPM of Leicester players this season, the defensive part of RAPM.
| Player | DRAPM |
|---|---|
| Tomiwa Sulaiman | +2.8 |
| Emmanuel Akot | +1.9 |
| Spencer Johnson | +0.8 |
| Aaron Menzies | +0.2 |
| Don Carey Jr | -0.4 |
| Travis Evee | -0.5 |
| RaeQuan Battle | -0.6 |
| Keddy Johnson | -0.9 |
| Marc Loving | -2.1 |
| Nate Martin | -2.2 |
| Victor Ndoukou | -2.9 |
| Flynn Boardman-Raffet | -3.3 |
* Only players with more than 100 minutes played are included
Sulaiman tops Leicester in DRAPM and ranks 12th in the league among players with more than 100 minutes played. His biggest impact comes on defence, and Leicester’s numbers suggest they have felt it more from him than from anyone else on the roster.
Defence is where Sulaiman’s value becomes easiest to see. He can handle bigger wings with strength and smaller ones with speed. Off the ball he is active and alert, quick to close gaps and ready to rotate in from the wing to protect the paint. He blocks and alters shots, and he rebounds well for a wing too. DRAPM suggests that this defensive activity is driving real team-level value.
Top Overall
The table below shows the overall RAPM of Leicester players this season, combining the offensive and defensive parts of the model.
| Player | RAPM |
|---|---|
| Tomiwa Sulaiman | +3.1 |
| Don Carey Jr | +2.8 |
| Emmanuel Akot | +0.8 |
| Nate Martin | +0.5 |
| Aaron Menzies | 0.0 |
| Marc Loving | -0.1 |
| Spencer Johnson | -0.8 |
| RaeQuan Battle | -1.5 |
| Keddy Johnson | -1.7 |
| Flynn Boardman-Raffet | -2.0 |
| Travis Evee | -4.7 |
| Victor Ndoukou | -5.0 |
* Only players with more than 100 minutes played are included
RAPM shows that Sulaiman’s defensive value is not just cancelling out obvious offensive weakness. It is lifting him to the top of Leicester’s roster overall.
He is not simply surviving on one end and giving everything back on the other. Leicester’s impact data suggests he has been their most useful player this season.
Something Steady
Sulaiman’s offence has been poor. The box score makes that clear. But Leicester’s impact data suggests he has still found a way to help: a little on offence, a lot on defence, and enough overall to matter more than his scoring numbers suggest.
In a season of constant upheaval, Sulaiman has given Leicester something steady: real defensive value, enough overall to finish at the top of the roster by RAPM, and the kind of consistency that has helped hold his place through all the versions of this team.
Leicester have already had to cope with missing star players over the last couple of months. Sulaiman missed their last game through injury. He may not have drawn many headlines this season, but he is one player Leicester cannot afford to lose for long.
