At the start of the season, Dave Forrester welcomed Luke Nelson’s return to the league on Sunday Night Breakdown. He praised Nelson’s commitment to Great Britain and considered the role he could have at Manchester.
To have him come back and actually have a team to run as opposed to being London’s fourth guard. I think that will be better for him. He’s a guy who relishes and revels in responsibility.
Forrester also welcomed the move for what it gives the SLB, with established British internationals playing across more clubs.
That is a real positive thing for the SLB. Not only that Luke Nelson is playing in the league but he isn’t playing at London.
This piece uses Epinoia to compare Nelson’s playmaking with other SLB players and examine how Manchester play with him on and off the court. Epinoia player profile.
Creating for Others
Duke Shelton wins the opening tip against Bristol on 30 October. Ciaran Sandy collects the ball and passes straight to Nelson, who dribbles across halfway and backs into Kasen Jennings. With his body between Jennings and the ball, Nelson looks over his shoulder at the defence. Sandy cuts to the rim. Nelson rifles the ball through the gap for a lay-up. It was the first of his 11 assists that night.
The table compares Nelson’s playmaking figures with those of other SLB players.
| Stat | Value | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Assist % | 36.7% | 98th |
| Assist % / Usage % | 1.65 | 94th |
| Turnover % | 18.2% | 30th |
| Assists / Turnovers | 2.39 | 89th |
The 98th percentile means Nelson ranks above about 98% of the players in Epinoia’s comparison for that stat. For turnover percentage, lower rates rank higher.
When Nelson is on court, Manchester’s offence flows through him. Assist percentage estimates the share of his team-mates’ made field goals he sets up while on the floor. Usage estimates the share of team plays he finishes with a shot, free throws or a turnover. His ratio of assist percentage to usage ranks near the top of the league, showing how often he sets up others relative to how often he finishes a play himself.
His passes carry risk and he turns the ball over at an above-average rate yet still ranks among the league’s best for assists per turnover.
More at the Rim, Fewer Threes
Comparing Manchester with Nelson on the court and off it shows how their shot profile changes. The table tracks how often they shoot at the rim and from three, and how often those shots go in.
| Stat | Difference with Nelson on court | League Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Rim Volume | +3.3 | 69th |
| Rim FG% | +3.8pp | 74th |
| Three-point Volume | -1.0 | 41st |
| Three-point % | -7.5pp | 12th |
Volume is measured in attempts per 100 possessions. Shooting percentage differences are in percentage points (pp)
The gap from three is mainly in accuracy. Three-point percentage is noisy in a small sample, and a run of makes or misses over a few games can change that gap quickly.
More Ways to Match Up
At 6ft 3in, Nelson can switch between guard and wing assignments as Manchester’s line-up changes. Away from the ball, his experience shows in how he reads the play around him.
| Stat | Difference with Nelson on court | League Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent Rim Volume | -5.3 | 84th |
| Opponent Rim FG% | -2.2pp | 66th |
| Opponent Three-point Volume | -5.6 | 83rd |
| Opponent 3P% | -4.4pp | 74th |
Volume is measured in attempts per 100 possessions. Shooting percentage differences are in percentage points (pp)
Across Both Ends
With Nelson on court, Manchester get to the rim more often and finish better there. They take slightly fewer threes and make a smaller share of them. At the other end, opponents get fewer attempts and make a smaller share of their shots from both areas.
The shot figures show where both teams get their chances during Nelson’s minutes but the ratings show what changed on the scoreboard.
| Stat | Difference with Nelson on court | League Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | -5.0 | 38th |
| Defensive Rating | -18.9 | 91st |
| Net Rating | +13.9 | 81st |
Offensive rating is points scored per 100 possessions. Defensive rating is points conceded per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference between the two.
Nelson is central to an attack that has scored less efficiently in his minutes. The drop in points conceded is larger, which leaves Manchester with a better net rating when he plays.
When Manchester announced his signing in the summer, then head coach Matthew Otten explained what had attracted the club:
His defence, ability to see the floor and toughness are what stood out and I look forward to having him.
So far this season, Nelson looks like the player Manchester were looking for.
